Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Home Uncategorized High turnout by Trump’s base won’t be enough to get him re-elected

High turnout by Trump’s base won’t be enough to get him re-elected


US President Donald Trump disembarks after arriving on Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, September 26, 2019, after returning from New York. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

According to an analysis provided to the Washington Post,



Tom Boggioni
September 7, 2020 2:13AM (UTC)

This article originally appeared on Raw Story

rawlogo

According to an analysis provided to the Washington Post, even if Donald Trump’s fanbase turns out in high numbers in November, that might not be enough for him to be re-elected.

Writing for the Post, Robert Griffin of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group. claims the numbers don’t work out for the embattled president if he can’t expand his pool of potential voters.

Stating that the lead that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has over Trump has remained remarkably stable, Griffin wrote that those in the president’s camp who state turnout will be the key to his re-election are fooling themselves.

“Turnout-centric strategies have become the go-to move for underdog campaigns: Despite the polls, the argument goes, our candidate has a chance if a particular group turns out in droves. During the Democratic primary race, for example, supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) claimed that an unprecedented wave of young and working-class voters would sweep their man to victory — a deluge that did not materialize,” he wrote before pointing out that, in a high turnout election, increases in voting groups are relative across the board.

“History tells us that it is unusual to see a substantial increase in turnout for just one specific group. Voters live in shared political environments that shape perceptions about an election’s importance. As such, it’s more common to see turnouts among different groups rise and fall together,” he explained. “Take the 2016 election. While the turnout rate of White voters without college degrees did go up by about three percentage points compared with 2012 — and this group disproportionately supported Trump — the increase was not far from the two-percentage-point rise among Hispanic, Asian and White college-educated voters.”

As he notes, the real battle id for so-called swing voters where the president is already faltering. 

“While House Republicans won a narrow plurality of the vote in 2016, House Democrats won the national vote by almost nine points just two years later. An analysis by the Democratic data firm Catalist suggests that nearly 90 percent of the shift between those two elections was because people changed their minds,” he elaborated. “If Trump wins in November, it’s much more likely that he’ll have done so by strategically increasing turnout and winning over persuadable voters than by radically increasing turnout alone.

He then warned, “A huge surge in turnout among your favored candidate’s supporters is nice to think about. Just don’t bank on it.”

You can read more here.


Tom Boggioni

MORE FROM Tom Boggioni



Related Topics ——————————————


LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

- Advertisment -

Most Popular

Ryder Cup 2010

McDowell knew the Twenty Ten course like the back of his hand. He’d won the Wales Open on the course that year and during a period when he lived in Cardiff he used the venue as his practice area.As the match descended into the home stretch McDowell sunk a 15-foot birdie to go 2-up on…

GB’s Evans calls opponents ’embarrassing’

Evans was knocked out in the singles in the first round by Kei Nishikori of JapanBritain's Dan Evans said his doubles opponents were "embarrassing" after becoming involved in an on-court row at the French Open.The British singles number one and Polish partner Hubert Hurkacz beat Dutchman Matwe Middelkoop and Brazilian Marcel Demoliner in the first…

US team walks off after ‘homophobic slur’

Collin Martin (pictured playing for former club Minnesota United) came out as gay in 2018Landon Donovan said his San Diego Loyal "would not stand" for bigotry having left the pitch in protest after an alleged homophobic comment was aimed at openly gay midfielder Collin Martin.An opposition player from Phoenix Rising was accused of making the…

As colleges reopened, many more young people got covid-19, CDC reports – msnNOW

Covid-19 cases surged nationally among 18- to 22-year-olds between Aug. 2 and Sept. 5, according to a report released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which urged young adults as well as colleges and universities to take precautions to prevent the spread of the virus.Weekly cases among the age group jumped 55…